THE ODDS TOOL / 02
Fortnite Token Chance Calculator
How likely are you to find at least one token? Pick a chest count and an estimated drop rate to find out.
LAST UPDATED November 3, 2026
Choose a preset or enter your own number.
YOUR ESTIMATED CHANCE0.07%
of finding at least one token in 500 chests
✳Epic has not published the official drop rate. These figures are community estimates.
AT A GLANCE
ESTIMATES ONLYCompare the odds
Chance of at least one token, assuming each chest is an independent attempt.
| CHESTS OPENED | 1 IN 700,000 | 1 IN 100,000 |
|---|---|---|
| 100 | 0.01% | 0.10% |
| 500 | 0.07% | 0.50% |
| 1,000 | 0.14% | 1.00% |
| 5,000 | 0.71% | 4.88% |
✳ Epic has not published the official drop rate. These figures are community estimates.
THE MATH
How it works.
The calculation subtracts the chance of getting no token from 1: 1 − (1 − p)N, where p is the assumed chance per chest and N is the number opened.
Results are rounded to two decimal places. They describe a probability, not a prediction of what will happen in your next match.
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